What Stubborn Inflation Could Mean for the U.S. Economy
What Stubborn Inflation Could Mean for the U.S. EconomyOn April 10, 2024, the U.S. 美国劳工统计局公布了3月份消费者价格指数（CPI）, 而最常被引用的通胀指标——消费者价格指数（CPI）的涨幅也高于预期. The rate for all items (headline inflation) was 3.5% over the previous year, while the “core CPI” rate, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was even higher at 3.8%. 环比变动也高于预期，为0.4%.1
这一消息传出后，股票市场急剧下跌，并在接下来的几天里继续下滑, 而经济学家们则在公开场合对他们的预测为何是错误的，以及更高的数字对未来利率走势可能意味着什么表示绝望. In fact, most projections were off by just 0.1% — core CPI was expected to increase by 3.7% instead of 3.8%——对于普通的观察者来说，这似乎算不上惊天动地. 但这一微小的差异表明，事实证明，通胀对美联储的高利率政策更具抵抗力.2
重要的是要记住，对抗通胀的最危险的战斗似乎已经胜利. CPI inflation peaked at 9.2022年6月的通胀率为1%，人们担心通胀会像上世纪80年代那样失控. 但这并没有发生，直到2023年底，通货膨胀率一直在稳步下降. 现在的问题是，2024年的前三个月出现了上升趋势.3 This is best seen by looking at the monthly rates, 哪一种利率比12个月利率更能反映当前形势. 2024年3月是连续第三个月通货膨胀率上升（见图表）。.
Trending Upward
A monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index of 0.1% to 0.2% would equate to an annual inflation rate of roughly 2%, 美联储认为这对健康的经济是合适的.
One-month change in CPI
Source: U.S. 美国劳工统计局，2024年（所有城市消费者的消费价格指数）
High for longer
而物价上涨则直接打击了消费者的钱包, 股市的主要反应是，顽固的通胀对基准联邦基金利率和美国国债利率可能意味着什么.S. businesses. From March 2022 to July 2023, 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将基金利率从接近于零提高到目前的5.25%–5.5%, in order to slow the economy and hold back inflation. At the end of 2023, 通货膨胀明显朝着美联储2%的目标稳步前进, 联邦公开市场委员会预计2024年将降息三个0.25个百分点, 一些观察人士预计，今年春天可能会出现首次下降. 现在很明显，美联储将不得不等待降息.4–5
更高的利率使企业和消费者的借贷成本更高. For businesses, 当收入用于偿还债务时，这可能会阻碍扩张，并削减利润. This is especially difficult for smaller companies, which often depend on debt to grow and sustain operations. Tech companies and banks are also sensitive to high rates.6
In theory, 高利率应该会抑制消费支出，并通过抑制需求来帮助降低价格. So far, however, consumer spending has remained strong. In March 2024, 个人消费支出——消费者支出的标准衡量标准——以异乎寻常的强劲的月增长率增长了0%.8% in current dollars or 0.5% when adjusted for inflation.7 The job market has also stayed strong, 失业率连续26个月低于4%，工资稳步上升.8 对长期维持高利率的担忧是，它可能会使经济过度放缓, but that is clearly not the case, making it difficult for the Fed to justify rate cuts.
What’s driving inflation?
消费者价格指数衡量的是固定市场一篮子商品和服务的价格变化, and some inputs are weighted more heavily than others. The cost of shelter is the largest single category, 约占该指数的36%，占3月份CPI涨幅的近38%.9 好消息是，住房成本的测量——主要是实际租金和房主出租房屋可能得到的估计租金——往往滞后于当前的价格变化, 其他指标显示租金正在持平或下降.10
Two lesser components contributed well above their weight. Gas prices, which are always volatile, made up only 3.占指数的3%，但占CPI整体涨幅的15%. Motor vehicle insurance prices made up just 2.占指数的5%，但占涨幅的18%以上. 住房、汽油和机动车保险合计推动了3月份CPI通胀的70%. On the positive side, food prices made up 13.5% of the index and rose by only 0.1%, effectively reducing inflation.11
While the Fed pays close attention to the CPI, 其首选的通胀指标是个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数, which places less emphasis on shelter costs, includes a broader range of inputs, and accounts for changes in consumer behavior. 由于这些因素，个人消费支出通胀往往低于CPI. The annual increase in March was 2.7% for all items and 2.8% for core PCE, excluding food and energy. The monthly increase was 0.3% for both measures.12
Although these figures are closer to the Fed’s 2% target, 在就业和消费者支出强劲的情况下，它们还没有低到足以表明美联储将在近期降息的程度. It’s also unlikely that the Fed will raise rates. For now, 央行似乎准备给当前的利率更多的时间来推动通胀降至一个健康的水平, ideally without significant slowing of economic activity.13
All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, 没有人能保证任何投资策略都会成功. 预测是基于当前情况，可能会发生变化，也可能不会实现.