房地产综述：感受高利率的影响
房地产综述：感受高利率的影响U.S. commercial real estate prices fell more than 11% between March 2022, 当时美联储开始提高利率, 和2024年1月. The potential for steeper 损失 has chilled the market and still poses significant risks to some property owners and lenders.1
On the residential side of the market, the national median price of an existing home rose 5.7% over the year that ended in April 2024 to reach $407,600, a record high for April.2 尽管借贷成本极高, buyer demand (driven up by younger generations forming new households) has exceeded the supply of homes for sale.
Here are some of the factors affecting these distinct markets and the broader economy.
慢镜头的商业崩溃
The expansion of remote work and e-commerce (two byproducts of the pandemic) drastically reduced demand for office and retail space, 尤其是在大城市. 估计1美元.2024年和2025年将有2万亿美元的商业贷款到期, but depressed property values combined with high financing costs and vacancy rates could make it difficult for owners to clear their debt.3 2024年4月, an estimated $38 billion of office buildings were threatened by default, 丧失抵押品赎回权, 或痛苦, 这是自2012年以来的最高水平.4
在一次电视采访中 60分钟 在2月份, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the mounting 损失 in commercial real estate are a “sizable problem” that could take years to resolve, 但博彩网址大全体系面临的风险似乎是可控的.5
房地产市场被锁定
The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed from around 3.2% in the beginning of 2022 to a 23-year high of nearly 8% in October 2023. Mortgage rates have ticked down since then but not as much as many people hoped. 2024年5月，平均利率徘徊在7%左右.6
The inventory of homes for sale has been extremely low since the pandemic, but a nationwide housing shortage has been in the works for decades. 房地产市场的崩溃摧毁了建筑业, 劳动力短缺, 有限的土地, 更高的材料成本, and local building restrictions have all been blamed for a long-term decline of new single-family home construction. 房地美估计住房缺口为3%.2021年将达到800万台（最新数据）.7
许多房主的抵押贷款利率极低, making them reluctant to sell because they would have to finance their next homes at much higher rates. This “lock-in effect” has worsened the inventory shortage and cut deeply into home sales. 同时, the combination of higher mortgage rates and home prices has taken a serious toll on affordability and locked many aspiring first-time buyers out of homeownership.
2024年4月, inventories were up 16% over the previous year, but there was still just a 3.按照目前的销售速度，5个月的供应量. (A market with a six-month supply is viewed as balanced between buyers and sellers.) The supply of homes priced at more than $1 million was up 34% over the previous year, 这可能会帮助富裕的买家, but won’t do much to improve the affordability of entry-level homes.8
新建筑开始动工
新建住宅占33套.2024年第一季度待售房屋的比例为4%，低于34%的峰值.5% in 2022, but still about double the pre-pandemic share — mostly due to the lack of existing homes for sale.9
April 2024 was the second highest month for total housing completions in 15 years, with 1.62 million units (measured on an annualized basis), including single-family and multi-family homes.10 这可能导致公寓空置率呈上升趋势, 帮助减缓租金增长, and allow more families to purchase brand new homes in the next few months.
Renters are seeing relief thanks to a glut of multi-family apartment projects that were started in 2021 and 2022 — back when interest rates were low — and are gradually becoming available. 2024年第一季度，平均公寓租金降至1731.1美元.比2023年夏季的峰值低8%.11
其影响贯穿整个经济
By one estimate, the construction and management of commercial buildings contributed $2.5万亿美元.S. 国内生产总值（GDP），产生了881美元.4 billion in personal earnings, and supported 15 million jobs in 2023.12 根据全国房地产经纪人协会的说法, 住宅房地产估计贡献了4美元.9万亿美元（或18%）.S. GDP in 2023, with each median-priced home sale generating about $125,000. 当购买房屋时（新的或现有的）, it tends to increase housing-related expenditures such as appliances, 家具, 家居装饰, 以及景观.13
两个房地产行业都雇佣了许多类型的专业人员, and the development of new homes and buildings stimulates local economies by creating well-paying construction jobs and boosting property tax receipts. Development benefits other types of businesses (locally and nationally) by increasing production and employment in industries that provide raw materials like lumber or that manufacture or sell building tools, 设备, 和组件.
房地产价值的变化, 向上或向下, 能影响消费者和企业的财务状况吗, 信心, 和支出. 当买房似乎遥不可及的时候, some younger consumers might give up on that goal and spend their money on other things.
If interest rates stay high for too long it could accelerate commercial loan defaults, 损失, 银行倒闭, 继续限制房屋销售, or eventually push down home values — and any of these outcomes would have the potential to cut into economic growth. 当美联储最终开始降息时, 借贷成本也会随之增加, but that’s not likely to happen until inflation is no longer viewed as the larger threat.